Arkansas Corrections Systems Lab v6

What happens if Arkansas fixes what it can before deciding what to build?

No one has to know what number to enter. Pick a scenario and the simulator uses the Arkansas data we already have. When the public record does not support a number, the simulator says so instead of making one up.

Observed Published model Hypothetical

BLR July population

19,454

Jurisdictional population used in the BLR capacity comparison.

BLR operated beds

16,809

Operated ADC beds used in the same BLR comparison.

Simple current difference

2,645

Arithmetic only. It is not automatically the construction answer.

2029 CGL forecast

21,497

Forecast population. It is not an observed 2026 count.

Choose what Arkansas does next

The corrections machine

Current system pressure

Pick a scenario or use the controls below. The machine is the first thing people should see.

Hover a gear

Move over any gear to see what it represents and how it affects bed capacity.

NOW

Waiting to run

SIMULATION CONTROLS

Time horizon

Run through

Documented scenario

Apply CGL transfer-eligibility sensitivity (≈750 lower modeled population) Apply aggregate ACC room test (83 possible spaces)

Published or reported figures only. They are not treated as automatic release counts.

Test a system pathway

Choose the part of the system you want to test. Each pathway asks for the inputs that actually connect that gear to occupied bed days. Leave a box blank when you do not have a defensible number.

Staff training & disciplinary pathway

Discipline → classification / record → release timing → occupied bed days

People affected in this run

Average custody days avoided per affected person

The simulator calculates people × days. It does not ask you to guess “beds freed.”

Programming wait-time pathway

Program access → completion timing → TE / parole progression → occupied bed days

People whose program delay is reduced

Average days of program-related custody delay reduced

TE / parole and release-timing pathway

Eligibility / approval → actual release → occupied bed days

People released sooner in the scenario

Average days released sooner

This custom pathway is separate from the published CGL ≈750 transfer-eligibility sensitivity above.

Risk assessment & placement pathway

Risk / needs assessment → appropriate placement → secure-custody days

People placed differently in the scenario

Average secure-custody days shifted to an appropriate alternative

Substance-use treatment & alternatives pathway

Treatment can affect secure placement now and returns to custody later

People using a treatment alternative to secure custody

Average secure-custody days avoided for those people

People followed after treatment / release

Average custody days when a person returns

Baseline return-to-custody rate (%)

Scenario return-to-custody rate (%)

Rate measured over how many months?

Return-rate effects are counted only when their stated follow-up period fits inside the selected simulation window.

Release readiness & reentry pathway

Release readiness affects days now; reentry can affect future returns

People whose release-processing delay is reduced

Average release-processing days reduced

People followed after release

Average custody days when a person returns

Baseline return-to-custody rate (%)

Scenario return-to-custody rate (%)

Rate measured over how many months?

ACC community-supervision pathway

Supervision → violations / revocations / new offenses → return to custody

People in the supervision cohort being tested

Average custody days after a return

Baseline return-to-custody rate (%)

Scenario return-to-custody rate (%)

Rate measured over how many months?

When several pathways are tested together, the simulator does not blindly add them. It reports a conservative result that assumes overlap and a separate non-overlap scenario so the same people are not silently counted twice.

Test adding beds

How many staffed beds should Arkansas add in this run?

BASELINE DATA & SOURCE NOTES

BLR July 2026 jurisdictional population19,454

BLR operated ADC beds16,809

ADC total population — Aug. 3, 202619,434

ADC unit population / stated capacity16,759 / 15,362

County jail backup2,279

ACC supervision population71,998

ACC officer positions / vacancies487 / 57

ACC aggregate center count / listed capacity2,009 / 2,092

CGL 2029 forecast21,497

CGL 2036 forecast24,877

CGL TE sensitivity≈750

Read this correctly

Observed counts, published modeled sensitivities, and hypothetical inputs stay separate. The simulator shows pressure, scenario arithmetic, and missing evidence. It does not claim a final bed number when the public record does not support one.